Drone Strike Kills Dozens at Funeral in Sudan, Raising Fears of Escalating Conflict

At least 40 people have been killed in a drone strike targeting a funeral procession near el-Obeid, a strategic city in Sudan's North Kordofan state, according to officials and aid workers. The attack, which occurred on Monday in al-Luweib village, has been attributed to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), although the RSF has yet to issue a statement.

The incident further intensifies the already dire humanitarian crisis in Sudan, where fighting between the RSF and the Sudanese army has raged since April 2023. The conflict has displaced millions and pushed the country to the brink of famine.

RSF Accused of Atrocity; El-Obeid a Key Strategic Point

The North Kordofan Resistance Committee, a local volunteer aid group, reported the attack, which occurred approximately 15km east of el-Obeid. Mohamed Ismail, North Kordofan's humanitarian aid commissioner, confirmed the death toll to the Sudan Tribune website, stating that RSF drones targeted civilians attending the funeral.

El-Obeid holds significant strategic importance as it connects the capital, Khartoum, to the Darfur region in the west. Recent weeks have witnessed intensified fighting in the oil-rich Kordofan area, with an estimated 20,000 people fleeing to el-Obeid following the RSF's capture of Bara town, located 30km north of the city.

Echoes of Darfur: Allegations of Ethnic Targeting

The attack near el-Obeid comes amid growing concerns about atrocities committed by the RSF in other parts of Sudan, particularly in Darfur. The recent capture of el-Fasher, the army's last stronghold in Darfur, has been followed by reports of mass killings, sexual violence, abductions, and widespread looting, according to the UN.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has warned that such atrocities could amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. While the RSF leader has pledged to investigate alleged "violations," the paramilitary group denies accusations that killings in el-Fasher are ethnically motivated, targeting non-Arab populations – accusations that evoke the grim history of the Darfur conflict in the early 2000s.

Historical Context: The Darfur Conflict and the RSF's Origins

The RSF has its roots in the Janjaweed militias, which were implicated in widespread human rights abuses during the Darfur conflict. The current violence in Sudan is, in many ways, a continuation of unresolved tensions and power struggles stemming from that earlier conflict, argues Dr. Ahmed Soliman, a Horn of Africa researcher at Chatham House. "The international community's failure to adequately address the root causes of the Darfur crisis has contributed to the current instability and the impunity enjoyed by actors like the RSF," he said.

Famine Looms as Humanitarian Crisis Deepens

The UN-accredited Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has confirmed that residents of el-Fasher are facing famine conditions following an 18-month siege by the RSF. The IPC also reported that Kadugli, a city in South Kordofan state, is experiencing catastrophic levels of hunger, as it has also been surrounded and cut off from supplies by the RSF.

The dire humanitarian situation has prompted UN Secretary-General António Guterres to call for an immediate cessation of violence. "The horrifying crisis in Sudan... is spiralling out of control," he stated, adding that el-Fasher and surrounding areas have become an "epicentre of suffering, hunger, violence and displacement."

Expert View: The Collapse of Peace Talks and the Need for a New Approach

"The failure of previous peace talks in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain highlights the deep-seated distrust and lack of political will among the warring parties," notes Professor Fatima Hassan, a Sudanese political analyst based at the University of Khartoum. "A new approach is needed, one that involves broader participation from civil society groups and addresses the underlying grievances that fuel the conflict. Without a more inclusive and comprehensive peace process, Sudan risks descending into further chaos."

International Efforts to Broker a Ceasefire

A Sudanese government source has indicated that authorities are considering a US proposal for a truce. Washington, along with other nations, has been actively pushing for a ceasefire and a roadmap to end the conflict. However, previous attempts at peace negotiations have faltered, with both sides demonstrating a reluctance to commit to a lasting ceasefire.

Since the outbreak of the civil war in April 2023, the conflict has resulted in more than 150,000 deaths and the displacement of approximately 12 million people, creating what the UN has described as the world's largest humanitarian crisis.