```html South Africa's Julius Malema Convicted of Illegal Gun Possession

Julius Malema, the controversial leader of South Africa's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), has been found guilty of illegally possessing a firearm and discharging it in public. The conviction stems from a 2018 incident where a video surfaced showing Malema firing what appeared to be a semi-automatic rifle during the EFF's fifth-anniversary celebrations in the Eastern Cape province. The charges carry a minimum sentence of 15 years in prison, potentially reshaping the political landscape of South Africa.

The Incident and the Verdict

The incident, captured on video and widely circulated, showed Malema firing several shots into the air. He was charged alongside his former bodyguard, Adriaan Snyman, who was acquitted. Magistrate Twanet Olivier delivered the verdict, finding Malema guilty as charged after a lengthy trial. Sentencing has been postponed to January 2026, allowing time for pre-sentencing procedures.

According to South African news site SowetanLIVE, Malema was accused of firing between 14 and 15 live rounds on a stage in front of approximately 20,000 EFF supporters. In his defense, Malema claimed the firearm was not his and that he fired the shots to energize the crowd. This defense was ultimately rejected by the court.

Reactions and Potential Consequences

Despite the conviction, Malema remained defiant, telling supporters that "going to prison or death is a badge of honour." He vowed to challenge the judgment, potentially taking the case to South Africa's highest court, the Constitutional Court. He emphasized that the EFF would not be deterred by the legal proceedings, stating, "We cannot be scared of prison [or] to die for the revolution. Whatever they want to do, they must know we will never retreat."

Ian Cameron, a Member of Parliament from the Democratic Alliance (DA), South Africa's second-largest party, welcomed the conviction. He argued that it highlighted the "culture of chaos, violence and criminality that the leader of the EFF embodies and promotes." Cameron added, "A man who fires live rounds at a political rally demonstrates exactly the kind of thuggery the EFF is prepared to unleash on South Africa."

Legal Analysis and Political Implications

Legal expert Ulrich Roux told the BBC that Malema faces a "good chance" of serving a prison sentence. "He now needs to present evidence to the court to show why... he should not receive the minimum sentence of 15 years," Roux explained. He added that if Malema receives a prison sentence longer than 12 months without the option of a fine, he would be disqualified from serving as an MP, though this disqualification would only be finalized after the appeal process is exhausted and would end five years after the sentence has been completed.

Context: Malema's Polarizing Figure

Malema is a highly polarizing figure in South African politics. He rose to prominence as the leader of the African National Congress (ANC) Youth League before being expelled from the party. He subsequently founded the EFF, a radical left-wing party that advocates for the nationalization of key industries and the redistribution of land. His rhetoric often targets the white minority in South Africa, accusing them of continuing to benefit from the legacy of apartheid. He was also convicted of hate speech earlier this year.

Historical Parallels and Future Outlook Dr. Sithembile Mbete, a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Political Sciences at the University of Pretoria, notes that this case is occurring within a broader context of heightened political tensions and scrutiny of political leaders in South Africa. "Malema's conviction, regardless of the legal outcome of appeals, sends a strong message about accountability and the rule of law. However, it also risks further polarizing South African society, especially if his supporters perceive the legal proceedings as politically motivated," Dr. Mbete stated. She also noted that the EFF has consistently framed legal challenges against its leadership as attempts to silence their political voice, a narrative that resonates with some segments of the population.

This conviction comes at a sensitive time for South Africa, facing economic challenges and persistent racial inequality. The EFF has gained considerable support, particularly among young, unemployed black South Africans, by promising radical solutions to these problems. Malema's legal troubles could either weaken the EFF's influence or further galvanize its base, depending on how the situation unfolds. The upcoming sentencing and potential appeals process will be closely watched by political analysts and the South African public alike, as they could have significant ramifications for the country's political future. ```