According to a recent report, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may launch a counteroffensive against the Russian military in the near future. However, the timing of this pushback is dependent on the weather conditions in Ukraine, specifically the end of the mud season. This season, known as "rasputitsa," occurs between late March and May, during which time tanks, troop carriers, and artillery pieces can become bogged down in the muddy terrain.
David Helms, a weather expert and US Air Force veteran, predicts that the loss of moisture from the soil usually begins in early May in southern Ukraine and later in the Donetsk region, while the Russian-occupied Luhansk region may remain muddy until mid-May. Helms also notes that the effectiveness of military vehicles during mud season depends on the strength of the soil and the types of vehicles being used.
Despite the challenges posed by the weather, the Ukrainian army has been preparing for a counteroffensive, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy referencing the planned operation in his daily video messages. The country has also received military support from the US, UK, Poland, and Germany, including tanks and ammunition. If and when the counteroffensive begins, it may be directed towards the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol in the south.