Tanzania's 2025 Elections Loom Amidst Opposition Disqualification and Growing Concerns Over Fairness

As Tanzania gears up for its general elections in October 2025, significant concerns are mounting regarding the fairness and inclusivity of the electoral process. The disqualification of the main opposition party, Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA), coupled with the detention of its chairperson, Tundu Lissu, on serious charges, has cast a long shadow over the upcoming polls. The exclusion of regional election observers from SADC and EAC further exacerbates these concerns, raising fears of a slide towards electoral authoritarianism.

Opposition Leader Faces Treason Charges

Tundu Lissu, a prominent figure in Tanzanian politics and chairperson of CHADEMA, is currently in custody facing charges of treason, incitement, and publishing false information. The treason charges, which are non-bailable and carry the death penalty, stem from CHADEMA's "no reforms, no elections" campaign, advocating for electoral reforms prior to the 2025 elections. The Tanzanian courts have interpreted this campaign as an attempt to disrupt the electoral process.

The arrest and detention of Lissu have drawn condemnation from human rights organizations and opposition voices, who argue that the charges are politically motivated and designed to silence dissent. The severity of the charges raises concerns about the government's commitment to upholding democratic principles and allowing for a level playing field in the upcoming elections.

CHADEMA Disqualified, Raising Questions of Inclusivity

The disqualification of CHADEMA, the main opposition party, represents a significant blow to the prospects of a competitive election. While the specific reasons for the disqualification remain contested, analysts point to a pattern of restrictive measures targeting the opposition in recent years. This exclusion raises serious questions about the inclusivity of the electoral process and the ability of Tanzanian voters to freely choose their representatives.

Dr. Imani Mwakyusa, a political scientist at the University of Dar es Salaam, notes, "The disqualification of a major opposition party like CHADEMA undermines the very foundation of a multi-party democracy. It creates an uneven playing field and raises serious concerns about the legitimacy of the electoral outcome." She further added, "This situation necessitates a transparent and impartial review of the decision to disqualify CHADEMA to ensure that the process is fair and just."

CCM's Dominance and Historical Context

Since the introduction of multi-party democracy in Tanzania in 1995, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) has consistently won all six general elections. This unbroken streak of victories has made CCM one of the longest-ruling independent parties in Africa. However, critics argue that this dominance has been achieved through a combination of factors, including exclusion, censorship, electoral fraud, and violence against the opposition. These allegations have often been denied by the CCM and the government.

The historical context of Tanzania's political landscape is crucial to understanding the current situation. Following independence in 1961, Tanzania adopted a single-party system under the leadership of Julius Nyerere. While Nyerere is widely respected for his role in unifying the nation and promoting pan-Africanism, the legacy of single-party rule has arguably contributed to a political culture where the ruling party enjoys significant advantages over the opposition.

Exclusion of Regional Election Observers

Adding to the concerns surrounding the 2025 elections is the exclusion of election observers from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East African Community (EAC). International and regional observation missions play a crucial role in ensuring the transparency and credibility of elections. Their absence raises suspicions about the government's willingness to subject the electoral process to independent scrutiny.

Professor Kwame Toure, a specialist in African electoral processes at the University of Nairobi, stated, "The exclusion of SADC and EAC observers is a worrying sign. It suggests a lack of transparency and a reluctance to allow independent assessment of the electoral process. This decision undermines confidence in the integrity of the elections and raises questions about the government's commitment to democratic norms."

Looking Ahead: A Call for Dialogue and Reform

As Tanzania approaches the 2025 elections, the need for dialogue and reform is becoming increasingly urgent. For a credible and inclusive election to take place, it is essential that the government address the concerns raised by the opposition and international observers. This includes ensuring the fairness of the charges against Tundu Lissu, reviewing the disqualification of CHADEMA, and allowing for independent monitoring of the electoral process. Failure to address these issues risks further eroding public trust in the electoral system and undermining Tanzania's democratic credentials.

The future of Tanzania's democracy hinges on the willingness of all stakeholders to engage in constructive dialogue and work towards a more inclusive and transparent political system. The international community also has a role to play in encouraging these efforts and advocating for respect for human rights and democratic principles.