Is Cameroon's Veteran Leader Set for Another Term Amidst Opposition Disarray?

Cameroon's upcoming presidential election on October 12th is stirring debate as 92-year-old President Paul Biya seeks an unprecedented eighth term. The Constitutional Council has validated his candidacy while simultaneously excluding prominent opposition leader Maurice Kamto, a decision that has ignited accusations of political maneuvering and raised concerns about the fairness of the electoral process.

Biya, already the world's oldest serving head of state, has been in power since 1982. A victory would extend his rule potentially until he approaches 100 years old, further solidifying his place as one of Africa's longest-ruling leaders. The exclusion of Kamto, who presented a significant challenge in the previous election, has fueled accusations from his supporters that the process is rigged in Biya's favor.

Opposition Leader's Exclusion Sparks Controversy

Kamto's disqualification stems from an internal dispute within the Manidem party, which endorsed him. A rival faction nominated a different candidate, leading the electoral body, Elections Cameroon (Elecam), to invalidate Kamto's application. His legal team has condemned the decision as politically motivated, highlighting the deep divisions and challenges facing the opposition in Cameroon.

"The exclusion of Kamto highlights the persistent challenges of political pluralism in Cameroon," explains Dr. Sylvie Ayina, a political scientist at the University of Douala. "Internal divisions and procedural technicalities have often been exploited to weaken the opposition and consolidate the ruling party's power."

The Contenders: A Look at the Main Challengers

While 83 candidates initially sought to contest the election, Elecam approved only 12. The reasons for disqualification ranged from incomplete paperwork to issues of party representation. Besides Biya, the main contenders include:

Bello Bouba Maigari: A 78-year-old veteran politician from the north, Maigari leads the National Union for Democracy and Progress (NUDP). He previously served as Biya's first prime minister but broke away to run independently. Issa Tchiroma Bakary: Another northern politician, 75-year-old Tchiroma also served in Biya's government for two decades before resigning to contest the presidency under the Cameroon National Salvation Front (CNSF) banner. Cabral Libii: A younger candidate and member of parliament, Libii, representing the Cameroon Party for National Reconciliation (PCRN), is making his second attempt at the presidency. He garnered 6% of the vote in 2018. Akere Muna: An international anti-corruption lawyer from a prominent political family, Muna advocates for good governance and tackling corruption. Joshua Osih: Leader of the Social Democratic Front (SDF), Osih is contesting for the second time, aiming to revitalize the party's influence after years of internal struggles.

Historical Context: Biya's Enduring Grip on Power

Paul Biya's long tenure is rooted in a complex political landscape. He inherited the presidency from Ahmadou Ahidjo in 1982 and has skillfully navigated political challenges, including a transition to multi-party politics in the 1990s. While his victories have been consistently marred by allegations of electoral fraud, which the government denies, Biya has maintained a firm grip on power through a combination of political maneuvering, control of state resources, and a fragmented opposition.

The historical context is critical, says Remi Njine, a researcher at the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies. "Cameroon's political system has been shaped by a strong presidency and a weak opposition. This dynamic, coupled with ethnic and regional divisions, has made it difficult for any single challenger to unseat Biya."

Can the Opposition Unite?

Historically, a fragmented opposition has been a key factor in Biya's electoral success. Calls for unity have been persistent, but deep-seated rivalries and conflicting ambitions have hindered any cohesive alliance. The exclusion of Kamto has amplified these calls, with some urging him to leverage his influence to support a unified opposition front.

Civil society leaders like Felix Agbor Balla have emphasized the urgency of a united front. "The opposition must prioritize the nation and rise above personal ego to find a consensual candidate," he stated, warning of potential political irrelevance if they fail to cooperate.

While discussions about a potential coalition are ongoing, the outcome remains uncertain. Prince Michael Ekosso, president of the United Socialist Democratic Party (USDP), revealed that opposition figures met recently to discuss the criteria for a "consensual candidate," emphasizing the need for someone who is responsive to the aspirations of Cameroonians, flexible, bilingual, and capable of mobilizing support.

The 1992 election serves as a reminder of the potential impact of a united opposition. Backed by the Union for Change coalition, John Fru Ndi secured 36% of the vote, the closest anyone has come to defeating Biya. Whether the opposition can replicate this level of unity in the upcoming election remains to be seen, but it could be decisive in determining the future of Cameroon.