Saudi Arabia has emerged as Kenya's largest single import market, surpassing China, India, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In March, imports from Saudi Arabia tripled, reaching Sh32.27 billion, primarily driven by increased orders of fuel. This surge in imports has resulted in diesel becoming Kenya's top import from Saudi Arabia, surpassing jet fuel. The dominance of petroleum products in Kenya's imports highlights the significant role they play in the nation's trade imbalance.
According to data released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), imports from Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the Middle East, nearly tripled from Sh8.44 billion in February to Sh32.27 billion in March. This figure exceeded imports from China (Sh30.34 billion), India (Sh27.32 billion), and the UAE (Sh13.93 billion), making Saudi Arabia the largest single import market for Kenya in that month.
The increase in imports from Saudi Arabia can be primarily attributed to higher shipments of gas oil (diesel), a product that was previously imported mostly from the UAE. The surge in diesel imports from Saudi Arabia began even before the arrival of the first shipment under the government-to-government fuel import agreement signed between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kenya on March 10.
Although diesel was not among the top three products imported from Saudi Arabia in previous months, the latest statistics from KNBS indicate that it surpassed jet fuel to become the highest-value import from the world's second-largest oil producer. In March, oil marketers imported gas oil worth Sh13.84 billion, followed by jet fuel worth Sh6.75 billion and fertilizer (diammonium phosphate) worth Sh6.51 billion.
In contrast, the main imports from Saudi Arabia in February included polypropylene (plastics) valued at Sh648.16 million, butanes (cooking gas) valued at Sh1.06 billion, and jet fuel valued at Sh3.66 billion. In March 2022, Saudi Arabia's top three exports to Kenya were jet fuel (worth Sh2.78 billion), fertilizer (worth Sh2.57 billion), and cement clinkers (worth Sh1.16 billion).
For more than a decade, China has been Kenya's primary supplier of various goods, including machinery, iron and steel, plastics, clothing, furniture, and electrical and electronic equipment, among others. However, over the past year, petroleum products have grown to become Kenya's largest source of imports due to rising international prices.
Between December and February, the UAE temporarily overtook China and India as the top supplier of imports by value, primarily due to increased sourcing of petroleum products from the Middle Eastern country. The volatility of commodity prices has been identified as a challenge for consumers and economic stability by the William Ruto government in the 2023 Budget Policy Statement (BPS).
In Kenya's inflation calculations, the cost of energy and transportation, which heavily relies on petroleum products, holds significant weight.